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Price Target
10 people like this. DividendGuy67 Can't help thinking about its long term monthly chart price action since 2000. It feels like 2 different companies. First company in fantastic growth phase from 2000 to 2018. 18 years of nice growth. Second phase from 2018 down to 2023. Massive decline. I also note many of its management team and CEO joins just after the peak. And they look young. And obviously very aggressive ... I wonder how this newer management team compares with the old ones from 2000 to 2018 ... or has there been a change in strategic direction? Whatever it is - price charts say - this is 2 very different company. 15/11/2023 2:10 AM DividendGuy67 Since 2013 to 2019 inclusive, the company's Net Profit ranges from 109 million to 149 million. This is very good profitability relative to assets deployed. From 2020 onwards, ignoring one time gains spike, this company's earnings has dropped to a paltry 40+ million in 2022. This is coming from huge asset base ... especially that massive capital commitment of - is it like 500 million? - if so, that maths doesn't make financial sense ... and what causes the huge decline? This is why Mr Market is saying it's 2 different companies - pre 2019 vs post 2019. Is Mr market wrong? 🤔🤔🤔. Because if Mr Market is right ... it's not going to fit my dividend needs ... 15/11/2023 2:20 AM DividendGuy67 The Dividend payout ratio is also different ... in the first phase, paying out 100% of its earnings, sometimes more, is done to support dividends. But in the last few years, management no longer able to payout close to 100% because of that massive capital commitment. The new CEO and the new Chairperson during the 2nd phase recently doesn't do themselves a favor in the annual report to lament about past 3 years milk industry ... especially when the company has committed to a huge capital commitment ... that doesn't project confidence to the market that their massive capital commitment is the right decision ... I mean ... if management spend so much on capital commitment .. and not yet anywhere near over ... and management and Board complains about market supply demand volatility ... what does it tell you? Will you have confidence in such management, especially when they have been embarking on such huge capital commitment, to kill their dividend policy? That is very hard for me to consider investing for dividends ... when it's unclear when they'll finish their capital spending ... and not so clear to me yet when their future earnings will start to rise again (ignoring one-offs). But to be honest, I haven't researched enough - all these are just first thoughts and so, comments welcomed ... 15/11/2023 2:32 AM DividendGuy67 But honestly, as value investors, when price fell from RM77 down to RM22, that's nearly 70%+ fall ... and would attract attention. But once we look at EPS fall, or Net Profit fall, it's quite proportional really ... in the old days excluding one-offs, it feels like max Net Profit may have been around RM150 million (?) and now, we are looking at say RM43 million, which is also similar fall i.e. value today is still about the same as value in the old days, except PPE in the old days were smaller and deliver higher earnings? There is a scenario where this higher PPE would pay off - if Malaysia market needs for dairy exploded - then that spare capacity could be put into production faster than competitors i.e. DLADY in that scenario would have a competitive advantage ... but it begs the question ... what is the catalyst that would push Malaysia market needs for dairy product to rise faster in 2024 that it couldn't do in 2023, given the COVID pandemic, the lock-down are old news already ? 🤔🤔🤔 15/11/2023 2:41 AM James_Bond Zus coffee boycott sentiment heating up! Next in line is boycotting “Dutch”-“lady”milk… 15/11/2023 6:39 AM CharlieM Buy if you can hold min 2-3 years. It’s a cyclical play. Bonus play new factory with double capacity but you need 2-3 year to see its full potential. 15/11/2023 10:03 AM dam82 Dutch dairy cooperative FrieslandCampina cuts 1,800 jobs this will impact dlady so will have impact on P&L ... 13/12/2023 12:19 PM ChangBL Wow, long time did not log in. Dlady drop til RM20 only, this 3iii tak boleh pakai, remember 3iii asked to buy at RM70++. MUAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA 16/01/2024 11:13 AM Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$â¬Â£Â¥ Well, let me comment. ChangBL posted so happily. Have a great day. Cheers. 21/02/2024 10:17 AM CharlieM From the latest Quarterly Report, “On a like for-like-basis Operating Profit excluding accelerated depreciation and one-offs is RM59.1 million, marking a 363.2% increase versus the same quarter in 2022. This increase is mainly driven by growth in revenue and the softening costs of dairy raw materials.” Operating Profit is actually RM59.1m, if excluding accelerated depreciation due to the new factory and one off costs for BAPA agreement. 23/02/2024 11:31 AM Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$â¬Â£Â¥ Y-o-Y. Revenue increased 7.7%. Operating profit incread 77%. Due to softening of dairy product cost. Generated about 200 m net operating cash flow. Cape was about 180 m. New manufacturing facility will be opened in 2024. 😀 27/02/2024 8:19 AM CharlieM P/E below 10 at the current price is achievable. If accelerated depreciation goes away, and if they can maintain Quarterly Operating Profit around 50m. Current Operating Profit excluding accelerated depreciation and one-offs is 59.1m. Current P/E is 21 with accelerated depreciation and one-offs. 28/02/2024 2:43 PM ken Retail buyers.. dlady will be adjusted to 30+ toward year end.. will be slow.. this is my view. 13/03/2024 3:21 PM ken EPF will buy back once new factory production begin. I think still got few more months. You may pasang jerat awal awal at cheaper price. I only has little shares at Abt RM21+ 13/03/2024 3:26 PM CharlieM My theory EPF is diversifying to FFB, they have been accumulating to about 10% now. FFB has high growth, but also high debt. Valuation is high P/E 59, but I guess they are banking on the high growth. Dlady numbers and valuation are good. Growth is decent now, hopefully the new factory will contribute to more growth. 13/03/2024 3:45 PM ttt FFB should focus. They diversify way too much ,etc 2 ice cream brands , way too many milk brands.. margins may be fatter... but too diversified may also result in lower efficiency. 13/03/2024 4:01 PM alibiii another RM1+ up day. very odd as these two days trading volume is very slim compared with few days ago 19/03/2024 9:47 AM Kensington For 4 consecutive days commencing from 12 March volume of transactions started to build up around a strong base of RM24 before a breakout for next 2 trading days (including today). The run up in price is accompanied by low volumes. Any sifu here care to give their much valued opinion? 19/03/2024 10:48 AM alibiii very odd trading pattern, maybe epf stop selling these two days. if big volume like 200k done in a day very easily fall back to RM24. had took some profit at RM25.xx to RM27, bought cheap around RM21 few months ago. will buy back if fall back to RM24 19/03/2024 12:09 PM CharlieM Dlady actual P/E is hidden by accelerated depreciation cost (due to moving to new factory) and one off (BAPA agreement). Current P/E is 23 with operating profit of RM27m (latest QR). But operating profit without accelerated depreciation and one off is RM59m (latest QR), that is more than double. As for EPF, they been reducing (diversifying) stake in Dlady from around 10% to now around 5%. And have been buying, accumulating FFB to now around 10% stake in the company. The question is, has EPF stop selling? If yes then there’s no more resistance to go up. 19/03/2024 12:15 PM katara but accelerated depreciation cost will still come in for some years ahead .. 19/03/2024 5:52 PM CharlieM From the QR, regarding accelerated depreciation. “Pursuant to the Company’s announced investment in our future manufacturing activities, DLMI has identified assets in its Petaling Jaya factory that will not be transitioned to the new site.” “In light of this, DLMI has implemented accelerated depreciation for the mentioned assets at the start of 2021 financial year, continuing into 2022, 2023 and 2024.” 19/03/2024 7:20 PM Kevin Tam True, I also noticed the trading pattern of 3 days ago was weird n the price gone up like being manipulated by one force.......The jump of bid was not normal, the first day that DutchLady broke the RM24 price line n gained 1.20 plus. These 3 days trading continue to lift the share price to be above RM26.00 but first day really a bit strange type of trading pattern. But agree that in term of valuation, DutchLady is much better than FFB even though these 12 months, many retail investors n institute n EPF turn to buy in FFB, extraordinary high valuation for consumer good stock.... 21/03/2024 2:19 PM Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$â¬Â£Â¥ >>> Y-o-Y. Revenue increased 7.7%. Operating profit incread 77%. Due to softening of dairy product cost. Generated about 200 m net operating cash flow. Cape was about 180 m. New manufacturing facility will be opened in 2024. 😀 >>> Fundamentals are intact. 21/03/2024 2:35 PM CharlieM Fundamental and valuation are good. Future growth with high tech double capacity new factory is good. Plan to be regional manufacturing hub is good. But EPF still has 2.9m shares, are they going to keep selling? 21/03/2024 2:58 PM CharlieM FFB growth is high YoY but valuation and debt are on the high side. If not for EPF and Aberdeen buying it will be sub RM1. 21/03/2024 3:05 PM utusminum recently saw some good volume, heard they are doing bonus issue with free warrant 22/03/2024 10:20 AM 25/03/2024 1:57 PM CharlieM Used to be RM67. It could return to that price if they can achieve operating profit around RM50+m per QR, which they already did last QR if excluding accelerated depreciation and one off. 25/03/2024 3:18 PM Kevin Tam Most probably retail investors seeing the jump up of past 3-4 days then entering to buy some Dlady. If the volume of past 3-4 days are much thinner than the average of trading volume of past 2-3 weeks ... More likely will drop back to below RM25/25.50 if buying momentum continue to reduce... 25/03/2024 8:35 PM CharlieM At the closing there’s 63,800 queue buy at 27.58 equivalent RM1.75 million.. 25/03/2024 8:47 PM BursaMaster121212 some local insti funds are buying...retailers unlikely will buy such an expensive stock in absolute term 26/03/2024 10:19 AM Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$â¬Â£Â¥ Upside. RM 30? RM 40? RM 50? RM60? 27/03/2024 12:06 PM | |