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| KLSE: UTDPLT (2089) | UNITED PLANTATIONS BHD | MAIN : Plantations |
| Last Price | Today's Change | Day's Range | Trading Volume |
| 25.16 |  +0.16 (0.64%) | 24.90 - 25.18 | 116,800 |
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 ooihk899 Sardin, if UP is able to reduce their production cost n increase their output, then they may be able to maintain result. 05/04/2024 9:44 AM ooihk899 It's harder to predict their profit since they only hedge 1/3 of their output as per AR info. I also do not know how much they already sell forward along the way until QR out. But I believe we are in good hand, hope this year Div is around 1.5.😄 05/04/2024 9:57 AM Sardin It can be summarised into 2 main points: 1. Selling cpo considerably below market value 2. Lesser cpo output And looks like both are going to happen together. Besides that there are a few more things I try to figure out. 05/04/2024 3:07 PM ooihk899 FY2023 Q1 ASP 37xx, This year CPO price Jan 3783.5 Feb 3949.5 Mar 4215.5 Info from MPOB. UP hedge 1H 53620MT @3980. So, I don't think Q1 will affect much. Have to look out for Q2 if CPO stay above 4200 for Q2. Output wise, if it's below 5% YoY, will not affect much. Will catchup starting Q2. This year UP forward sales volume is low compare to last few years. Up trend in CPO price will have lesser effect on profit. Hopefully they can cover it with higher yields. 05/04/2024 3:51 PM ooihk899 Sardin, does my explanation 'masuk akal'? Please let me have your thoughts. 05/04/2024 4:33 PM Sardin Not sure if output with catch up in Q2 because El Nino effect is known to be lasting for months / years. RM 3,800 / MT in Q3 a bit too much of the discount compares to BMD FCPO in Jul, Aug, Sep. 05/04/2024 5:01 PM ooihk899 2H forward contract qty is 28550MT, around 1/4 of UP Malaysia plantation 2H output. I think effect will not be so much. As for output, you can attend the AGM to ask the management on the effect of El Nino on FFB production 05/04/2024 8:06 PM observatory Does El Nino affect UP? Maybe you can study changes in yield per mature hectare for its Indonesian and Malaysian plantations respectively during the historical El Nino years. The questions are 1. How does El Nino affect Peninsular Malaysia and Kalimantan? 2. Do we have strong or normal El Nino in 2024? 3. How does it affect CPO price? 4. What is the net result if there is declining yield but higher prices? What about the prices and outputs of other competing oil crops? I suspect even professional traders find it difficult to answer confidently. 06/04/2024 11:11 AM Sardin @Observatory The El Nino effect in 2024 is expected to be at moderate level, and of course it will push up the CPO price. However, the high price of CPO is meant to compensate the reduction of output. If output is low, production cost per metric ton will be higher (assuming constant fixed cost, such as salaries, chemicals, etc.) and if the selling price is not high enough, it will squeeze the profit margin considerably. How much this will affect UP, I am not confident to answer and I am far from being a professional trader. But when I water my plants, and hang my clothes, phew... the weather is really really hot, I could feel the abnormal amount of heat. If this is only "moderate" I don't know how a serious El Nino feels like? My trees do not bear good fruits compares to a few months back, a lot less fruits and smaller fruits are what I got. 07/04/2024 12:02 AM Sardin UP did a risk assessment, I forgot which page on the annual report. Weather / climate has a rating associated to high risk and high impact besides the commodity price. I hope the contracted price had more than enough to adverse the impact of lower production. But I also know it is difficult to get a good deal / price stroke a few months back when effect of El Nino is not yet manifested. I believe there is a margin squeeze, hope it is a light one. 07/04/2024 12:12 AM ooihk899 Ytd Feb drop 3.8%, let's wait for Q1 production figure next week. Anyway QR will be release on 26th. 😃 07/04/2024 11:28 AM ooihk899 26th April , QR out. Bullish or not depend on QR, production quantity n their CPO ASP. 07/04/2024 3:15 PM BudiLee I think I have to sing that song again, coz UP price rising so high today, Yeayyy! Keep go up, keep go up! Siapa jual dia rugi 😃 08/04/2024 3:47 PM ooihk899 Should not worry about the output, YoY Q1 CPO output up by 1.9% overall. Q1 Own production YoY up by 2.9%😁 08/04/2024 5:16 PM dam82 trust the management ... i still think their tanah rata not reach the optimum palm oil output when that kick start the output will be fantastic ..... for now i just wait and see while all enjoy riding utdplt don't forget to grab a carlsberg beer and enjoy your day ... hahah kena promote mah ... 08/04/2024 7:09 PM JrWarren fking haze from Sumatra make my nose itchy, hope more rain coming in mid April to deal with the fire & Haze. Most important is providing water source for the palm oil in this El Nino time. 08/04/2024 8:06 PM  Pinky Retail top buy: https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=802415565254781&set=a.607997711363235 09/04/2024 2:31 PM  LossAversion 2nd round of profit taking, before buying back lower for dividends soon. he, he 12/04/2024 4:25 PM BudiLee Can anyone tell me, how much is the broker fee + any other fees involved every time we buy or sell stocks? 12/04/2024 9:17 PM BudiLee Congrats UP, you just passed the line of Ji Go = Dua Lima , moving up further! You can do it! 😍😎 16/04/2024 10:59 AM MoneyLovesMe Siapa jual dia rugi, sebab UP price akan naik terus sampai hari Jumat ini. 16/04/2024 11:00 AM JrWarren glad UP surpassed RM25, so will it drop after ex-date? Hardly, because the fund manager's dividend expectation still there and the price movement will reflect their expectation: 1. What is the cash reserve after dividend payout ? If got extra cash means extraordinary dividend. 2. Are the production & CPO price same / better than 2023? Yes for 1Q2024, if 2Q & 3Q result suggest better production, CPO price maintain at 4k, fund manager will arbitrage & push up UP share price. 16/04/2024 1:10 PM lionel messi What a gem of a stock. UP really epitomizes Buffett's famous advice of holding good stocks forever when asked when is the best time to sell. Never he says. Hard pressed to find another UP. Cheers. 🍻 17/04/2024 9:29 AM BudiLee Can anyone guess, how much will be the UP price on the day before the EX date? 17/04/2024 10:14 AM Ahlian This selling before XD similar like last year. Share price will stay here for now. Price likely will only move after AGM. 19/04/2024 10:00 AM  |
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