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Overview
Financial Highlight
Headlines
Business Background Formosa Prosonic Industries Bhd is a Malaysian based company. Together with its subsidiaries the company is engaged in manufacturing and sales of speaker systems, investment holding, provision of system development and solutions for business software. Its reportable segments are Malaysia and United Kingdom with the majority of the revenue generated from Malaysia.Its product portfolio includes wireless speaker products, conventional speaker products, musical instrument products and acoustic products. It also offers services including design services, manufacturing services, supply chain support and quality systems.
  Dhando The easy and very conservative way to calculate the intrinsic value is to look at the gap between the current PE and average PE the past 5 years. PE in the past has been around 10. Intrinsic value is (Past PE) * (Current Price)/ (Current PE) = 10 *3.53 / 7.18 = RM4.9. Anyway, we hope reversion to the mean happens soon. As FPI is a growth company, I believe the above calculation is too conservative. The actual PE should be much higher than 12x. This PE can only be achieved if share buy-back is initiated or institutional investor put FPI in their radar. 23/02/2023 10:18 AM uptrending 3Q Financial Results likely out this evening. USD peaked @4.70 to RM in Nov 22.. :) 23/02/2023 12:38 PM Sardin Investors have been caucious these few days, which is good for healthy share price growth in future. 23/02/2023 12:47 PM uptrending Fears of hawkish FED further interest hikes and inflation... People took profits.. Let's see if prematurely.. 23/02/2023 1:22 PM Sardin Some people are scared. There are lots of small shareholders in this counter and therefore price is more volatile. Current price is fair if one wants to buy, althought not "wonderful". I think the chances of price getting lower is smaller compare to the possibility of going up further. Upside opportunity is higher than downside risk. 23/02/2023 4:43 PM smoking ya lor.. the volume at 3pm onwards shows that some people have access to the result early. definitely insider 23/02/2023 6:18 PM uptrending Since early February, already pushed up and selling everyday from there.. Later a false breakout of the pennant to 3.6 9 and selling from there again... 23/02/2023 6:30 PM Dhando No one expected 13M forex loss. Really disappointing Q4 results. Some good news: 1. Cash and cash equivalent up 36% to 361M from 265M in year 2021 2. Earning up 9%, revenue up 4.8% on yearly basis 23/02/2023 6:48 PM uptrending Revenue down and related party sales from wistron also down... Be careful if this is the beginning of a downturn in the business.. 23/02/2023 7:31 PM Sardin I don't think so. Probably a temporary setback due to fear and confusion. But price will quickly stable between 3.30 and 3.50. If you study back a few of previous quarter report, you'll find out that earning without counting forex loss or gain is quite stable in the range of 7.xx to 10.xx sen per share, including 2022 Q4. Those who studied carefully won't get surprised and do panic sell. But there are groups of people who thought 12.xx and 17.xx sen quarter EPS were purely driven by customer order and projected very high growth rate and rate the stock at RM 5++ or RM 7++ might be caught in the trap that they setup for themselves. These people might be panic due to over position in this stock and got into a panic. The shares will change hand from these people to conservative investors. 23/02/2023 11:55 PM observatory I agree that, adjusted for forex, the core result isn't that alarming. However, the decline in revenue (RM181m in 4Q22, versus RM300m in 3Q22, and RM261m in 4Q21) cannot be explained by exchange rate. Sales to Wistron has dropped even more. So the question is will revenue be depressed in the coming quarters? 24/02/2023 12:07 AM Sardin Hi Uptrending, looking at the figures I feel that Wistron is pulling away some order which they thought not to be shared for long-term but only temporary coorperation according to agreement. However, it seems to me that FPI is able to replace these orders with higher margin product from other customers, which is a good thing that we should be happy to see it (normally only strong product command a higher margin and strong product usually come with a brand owned by an excellent company). 24/02/2023 12:09 AM Sardin Insiders have the advantage to react faster. However, not everyone is smart and be able to read the meaning behind the figures. Some of them might have done the wrong decision too quickly due to this advantage. The real world is full of fun. 24/02/2023 12:17 AM uptrending This Q, the revenue is a disaster. Revenue lost from Wistron was not replaced with non-Wistron revenue which also came down significantly even after adjustment for forex effects. Top line is far more important than the bottom line. Inventory is also down not speaking well for future revenues.. 24/02/2023 6:09 AM  pinnaclegrade I see this opportunity to add or average down... buy during panic.. only 1 bad quarter doesn't change the fundamentals & long term investment thesis 24/02/2023 9:05 AM CharlesT touch 2.98....quite a sharp drop of 47 cents.. At this level of RM3.00+, after ex div of 21 cents = RM2.80+...quite close to their ESOS level of 2.55...should be quite safe for now Then depends on their coming Q results 24/02/2023 9:21 AM PeacefulWarrior Agree. Just keep adding, even without capital appreciation, the dividend from this company is good enough to keep for long term. 24/02/2023 9:24 AM Sardin @Uptrending, Q4 revenue dip is due to following main reasons I think: (1) switch of product from low margin product to high margin product (low margin product is normally come with huge order but low profit). That's why if you don't count FOREX lost there is actually 8.xx sen per share earning in Q4. (2) festive season in Q4 will result in lesser output (3) back log (accumulated due to difficulty to get container and and high shipping cost) has been cleared quite a lot in Q3 so Q4 revenue would not be as much as Q3. That also explained the improved inventory level. Also, inflation peaked in Q3 last year so there will be inventory value adjustment in Q4. Therefore I think EPS 35 sen per year is sustainable in 2023 and whether or not it is able to make more I guess will depend on other external factors. The following growth will be depending on the trend of smart home, application of IoT and AI, home theater (see the trend of Netflix subscriber, for example). 24/02/2023 9:29 AM goody99 The problem is that they do not provide more explanation in their QR, so we can not access the situation and know what problems they face. How long the problem will persist? They have done nothing to calm investors. Nobody likes uncertainty. 24/02/2023 10:04 AM uptrending A major Gap Down is bearish. Let Mr Market tell us... Good Luck to all. 24/02/2023 10:19 AM Sardin Goody99, you're right they do not do detailed explanation. But they do mention forex loss of 13 mil in Q4. Net profit of Q4 is 8 mil. So if there were no forex loss then the profit would have been 21 mil which is still an healthy level. Also, if you divided the tax by profit before tax you'll get 39% tax rate while cukai makmur only 33%. This was only around 25% in Q3 and Q3 already accumulated more than 100 mil profit before tax. So I think FPI under estimate the tax payable in Q3 and some of these tax has to be paid in Q4, and that's why 39% in Q4. If you do the same math for Q3, the EPS disregarding the 18 mil forex gain is only around 10 sen. So I think these findings should be sufficient to calm yourself. 40% of revenue but profit (without considering forex) drops only 25% QoQ so you know the most profitable business stay. 24/02/2023 10:20 AM NatsukoMishima This stock fair value around rm 2.20 only bro , who ask u be a gambler to chase high , u deserve to lose money ! Ask u buy dnex but laugh at me , dnex , vstec , swift haulage is a 10 fold gain stock , dont say i never share with u ! Dont be a bodoh get dividen trap but lose 50% capital when insider dump faster than u , no need think what are the reasons behind this dump just leave right now because it s still over value ! 24/02/2023 10:51 AM Sardin I don't think so. Insiders are picking up at 3.xx. Who's dare or motivated to hold and turn the tide at current situation? Value investor like to wait further, only informed and organised large capital has the insight at what level it should get into the market and they are competing with each other to enter at this price. So that's why I think the storm is over. 24/02/2023 11:08 AM Sardin Unless a company is a total piece of shit. Otherwise, insiders will exploit both the greed and fear of other investors. Yes they dump, but they pick up too. 24/02/2023 11:12 AM Sardin And it is an open secret that these speculating insiders are not the core investors (the trading volume tells). Therefore serious investors would not simply buy and sell and react in this situation. Those who are participating actively in the trading today, they are not actually the one or important roles that decide whether or not this company will thrive or doing worse. 24/02/2023 11:21 AM scanner FPI forex loss is due to year end closing date cut off point resulting to forex loss. Although you have hedge the forex eventually will and back to next month account as forex again. I noticed that the company EPS is very much better than many other companies which the EPS is so much less but the share price is higher than this company. The director declare 21 sen dividend showing the company is still in good shape with higher cash in hand. 24/02/2023 11:37 AM CharlesT The Esos price of rm2.55 seems to be a strong support for the last 2 years+. However, the coming Q results will tell n decide future price movement 24/02/2023 12:23 PM Sardin Hi Scanner, the board of director declared 21 sen dividend and not more than that because they observed some business changes at that point and decided to payout a SUSTAINABLE dividend. Don't believe? You can expect 21 sen or just slightly higher for FY 2023. 29/03/2023 6:32 PM Sardin My opinion is that 21 sen will continue to be an amount that the company is at a comfortable position to pay for FY 2023. EPS will be definitely more than enough to cushion that but almost certain is lower than that achieved in FY 2022. 29/03/2023 6:36 PM Sardin And I believe the EPS in 2024 could be between the 2022 EPS and 2023 EPS if the new project is carried out successfully. 29/03/2023 6:39 PM Sardin FY 2023 EPS will be able to justify 10% on top of current share price according to my crystal ball. :) 29/03/2023 6:48 PM  | | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
