Highlights
KLSE: PETRONM (3042)       PETRON MALAYSIA REFINING & MARKETING BHD MAIN : Energy
Last Price Today's Change   Day's Range   Trading Volume
4.79   +0.06 (1.27%)  4.67 - 4.79  159,400
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Overview

Market Cap: 1,293 Million
NOSH: 270 Million
Avg Volume (4 weeks):347,120
4 Weeks Range:4.20 - 5.23
4 Weeks Price Volatility (%):
57.28%
52 Weeks Range:4.05 - 7.73
52 Weeks Price Volatility (%):
20.11%
Average Price Target: 4.60
Price Target Upside/Downside: -0.19

Financial Highlight

Latest Quarter | Ann. Date 31-Mar-2022 [#1]  |  26-May-2022
Next QR | Est. Ann. Date: 30-Jun-2022  |  26-Aug-2022
T4Q P/E | EY: 5.35  |  18.70%
T4Q DY | Payout %: 4.18%  |  22.33%
T4Q NAPS | P/NAPS: 7.6848  |  0.62
T4Q NP Margin | ROE: 2.20%  |  11.66%

Headlines

Date Subject
19-Jul-2022 上升股:Petron大马 阻力RM4.90
07-Jul-2022 下跌股:Petron大马 RM4.06支撑
22-Jun-2022 热门股:Petron大马 上挑RM6.21
15-Jun-2022 上升股:Petron大马 阻力RM6.98
10-Jun-2022 上升股:Petron大马 阻力RM7.52
07-Jun-2022 MQ Market Updates - 7 June 2022
07-Jun-2022 Trading Stocks - Petron Malaysia Refining & Marketing
07-Jun-2022 Stocks on Radar - Petron Malaysia Refining & Marketing
07-Jun-2022 上升股:Petron大马 阻力RM7.98
03-Jun-2022 Rising Tide Does Not Lift All Boats in O&G Sector
02-Jun-2022 热门股:Petron大马 上挑RM6.90
31-May-2022 热门股:Petron大马 上挑RM6.79
27-May-2022 Mplus Market Pulse - 27 May 2022
27-May-2022 Petron Malaysia 1Q Net Profit Edges Slightly Higher by 3.28% Yoy to RM106.38 Mil
24-May-2022 PublicInvest Research Headlines - 24 May 2022
24-May-2022 Ongoing Russian oil export ban, demand recovery to support refining margins
24-May-2022 MTC Engineering Seeks RM50 Mil From Petron Malaysia for Additional MIF2 Project Costs
24-May-2022 Mplus Market Pulse - 24 May 2022
20-May-2022 热门股:Petron大马 上挑RM7.31
18-May-2022 炼油赚幅创新高 下游油气公司料受惠

Business Background

Petron Malaysia Refining & Marketing Bhd is a Malaysian oil company engaged in producing a wide range of petroleum products which include gasoline, diesel, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and aviation fuel.
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  9 people like this.
 
probability Just adding Diesel (46% yield) at crack spread 43 USD/brl & Kerosene (7.1 % yield) at crack spread 34 USD/brl, you get the following gross profit per quarter:

Basis: 10.5 million barrel sales per qtr

1) Gross profit from Diesel:

10.5m barrels / qtr x 46% x 43 $/brl

= 207 Million USD


2) Gross profit from Kerosene:

10.5m barrels / qtr x 7.1% x 34 $/brl

= 24 Million USD

TOTAL = 207 + 24
= 231 Million USD
= 1 Billion MYR (per f**king QTR!)

...and thats without bringing in Gasoline, LPG , etc...
01/08/2022 7:27 PM
probability Refer Page 22 of the annual report. HY produces 46% Diesel

https://klse1.i3investor.com/servlets/staticfile/422363.jsp
01/08/2022 7:28 PM
probability 17 June 2022 news verifying the crack spread for Asian gasoil (DIESEL) hitting 67$/brl

No wonder Binh Son reported 420 million USD profit.

https://www.qcintel.com/article/distillate-summary-asia-gasoil-cracks-hit-fresh-records-jet-loses-steam-6664.html

Spot 10ppm gasoil traded in Singapore jumped to $185.68/b by the Friday's close, with the crack rising to $67/b, a fresh record
01/08/2022 7:29 PM
AzlanIshtiqal Masih pegang dan terus memantau situasi pasaran O&G
01/08/2022 7:54 PM
Sslee Ron97 at RM 4.55 per liter is equal to RM 4.55 X 159 = RM 723.45 per barrel.
USD to MYR: 4.46
R0N 97 is USD 723.45/ 4.46 = USD 162.21.

Tapis crude july price from Petronas USD 119.59 / barrel.
02/08/2022 12:00 PM
NatsukoMishima Breaking news , EU has started easing sanctions on Russian oil & gas !
02/08/2022 2:44 PM
NatsukoMishima @probability

13,754 posts

Posted by probability > 19 hours ago | Report Abuse

Just adding Diesel (46% yield) at crack spread 43 USD/brl & Kerosene (7.1 % yield) at crack spread 34 USD/brl, you get the following gross profit per quarter:

Basis: 10.5 million barrel sales per qtr

1) Gross profit from Diesel:

10.5m barrels / qtr x 46% x 43 $/brl

= 207 Million USD


2) Gross profit from Kerosene:

10.5m barrels / qtr x 7.1% x 34 $/brl

= 24 Million USD

TOTAL = 207 + 24
= 231 Million USD
= 1 Billion MYR (per f**king QTR!)

...and thats without bringing in Gasoline, LPG , etc...
__________
Wow, another calculation king just like previous glove forum , at the end all dissappeared and share price drop 80% !
02/08/2022 2:55 PM
stockwin @NatsukoMishima
Which part of the calculation you think is BS ??
02/08/2022 3:35 PM
Sslee I agreed HRC gross profit for Q2 end 30th June will be more than RM 1 billion. As of PAT need to wait for the actual result.
02/08/2022 4:21 PM
AzlanIshtiqal Masih pegang dan menantikan keputusan Q2 yg cemerlang...
02/08/2022 10:31 PM
hng33 bought back PetronM at 4.86-4.93
03/08/2022 9:58 AM
hng33 Time is ripe for exposure to refiner to ride its explosive coming Q2 result which capture highest crack spread USD 25
03/08/2022 10:00 AM
hng33 .........the company’s refineries earned strong margins and its oil traders delivered an “exceptional” performance

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2022/08/03/bp-boosts-returns-as-oil-refining-and-trading-drive-profit-beat
03/08/2022 10:05 AM
888STOCK888 Don't be scared by the sell down due to Aunty Nancy visit to Taiwan.

Sialang and celebrate the coming Q result.

Heng~

Ong~

Huatt ah~~~ =D


03/08/2022 11:26 AM
hng33 Despite mogas crack spread back to Dec 2021 level at USD 9, but RON97 still remain elevated at RM 4.55/l compared to Dec 2021 RON 97 at RM 3.00/l. These is massive 50% increase profit margin for PetronM selling petrol price at its retail station
03/08/2022 11:28 AM
hng33 Its proven ability of PetronM to own vast chain of petrol station enable it to continue to enjoy exception massive profit margin despite the indicator show crack spread have normalized
03/08/2022 11:31 AM
hng33 Bear in mind, the direct retail selling price RON97 at RM 4.55/l (the highest is at RM 4.84/l) is real profit margin to be recorded by PetronM instead of reference indicator crack spread, normalize back to USD 9 from highest USD33.

These vast discrepancy correlation adjustment between crack spread indicator to actual retail selling price enable PetronM to enjoy even higher profit margin through local vast retail station direct selling to customer
03/08/2022 11:44 AM
anthonytkh Retail is not O
03/08/2022 11:50 AM
anthonytkh I meant retail is not oil and gas companies’ main source of income
03/08/2022 11:51 AM
hng33 Retail selling price is the main source profit for PetronM on top of the refinery.

PetronM own third largest retail petrol station, just short behind Shell and Petronas.

PetronM derives dual source of profit = Petronas Dagangan (only sole profit from retail station) + Hengyuan (only sole profit from refinary)

03/08/2022 12:05 PM
Sslee The diesel/gasoil crack spread is still above USD 40/barrel
Going into winter more industries will need gasoil/MFO for heating as Russia reduce the gas supply to EU.

Going into month AUG 2022 so far only 3 tropical storms have formed the forecast is we are going to see hurricane in gulf of Mexico.
03/08/2022 12:07 PM
hng33 PetronM already completed installation new diessl hydrotreater worth USD 100m, enable it to produce direct diesel Euro 5
03/08/2022 12:14 PM
Sslee From AGM minute:
2021 Petronm retail market share of 21.7% for diesel and gasoline.
Domestic retail volume for FY2021 declined by about 30% as compared to the pre-pandemic level.
however, the volume has since recovered in 2022 as economic restriction eased.
03/08/2022 12:15 PM
Sslee DHT allows us to produce the government mandate Euro 5 diesel which is cleaner fuel and has lower sulfur emissions. It improved our refining margin as Euro 5 diesel has a higher premium compare to Euro2 diesel.

We are able to received larger parcel shipments of higher sulfur crude resulting in lower fright cost. in addition, the higher sulfur crude is able to blend with our staple crude yielding a better product mix.
03/08/2022 12:22 PM
Sslee Tell me why Petdag trading (commercial sales and retail sales) at PE of 47 whereas Petronm (Refinery, Biodiesel, retail and commercial sales) trading at PE of 5
03/08/2022 12:27 PM
hng33 The simple reason is market perception tend to lump petronm ( refinary business) with hengyuan instead group together petronm (retail petrol station) with petdag.



03/08/2022 12:55 PM
hng33 The easiest way to change market perception is calling petronM to make separate division presentations in its Q result, allowing analysts to fetch fairer comparison valuation tag to its refinary business and retail petrol business duvision, to calculate sum of part valuation
03/08/2022 12:59 PM
hng33 Based on total number of petrol station

1. Petronas: 1100
2. Shell: 950
3. Petron: 720

Based on profit over number of petrol stations, petronas derive RM 120m, explorate to petronM petrol retail divison should comand profit RM 78m, implying about 70% petronM profit actually derive from its petrol retail station, balance 30% profit is from more volatile refinary division..

Therefore, in turn if valuation, petronM should tag more closer to petronas dagangan instead of volatile earning hengyuan
03/08/2022 1:33 PM
Sslee Last quarter if not for hedging derivatives losses the refinery profit should be better than the retail profit.
Q2 will see a much better retail (volume business: many public holiday and balik kampumg travel) and refinery profit ( unnormal record high diesel and petrol crack spread)
03/08/2022 2:28 PM
hng33 Agreed, but, the exception profit will not only happen in coming Q2 result, it will sustain to next Q3 due to lag time factor over highly discrepancy between normalize crack spread and retaining elevated retail petrol RON selling price. Its allow arbitrary gain for petronM retail petrol business
03/08/2022 3:04 PM
hng33 Latest petrol RON 97 retail price only decrease by 5sen, to RM 4.50/litre.

These pricr level RM 4.50/l is still higher 50% if compared to last Dec level at RM 3.00/l. These elevated retail level is despite crack spread already normalize to last Dec level at 9.

These clearly allow PetronM retail petrol continue enjoy extraordinarily arbitrary profit margin.
03/08/2022 8:11 PM
probability retail margin is fixed as per the mechanism derived by Govn
03/08/2022 8:43 PM
probability https://paultan.org/2009/02/15/how-fuel-prices-are-calculated-in-malaysia/
03/08/2022 8:56 PM
hng33 Factor affecting retail petrol business earning as below show by petdag analyst comment.

1. E.g. FY21 earnings almost doubled YoY, with the group enjoying higher product prices, while volumes stayed marginally flattish YoY (-2%)

2. E. G. Core profit declined by -55.8% due to lower sales volume (-4%), higher product costs (+39%) and less favourable MOPS price trend.

3. 1HFY21 core net profit of RM266m came in below expectations at 39% of our, and 40% of consensus, full-year forecasts, dragged by a decline in product margin spreads amidst the normalisation of oil prices during the 2QFY21 quarter, coupled with lower-than-expected sales volumes.

4. . Post results, we lower our FY21E/FY22E earnings by 11%/5% on the back of lower margins spread and sales volume assumptions

5. Petronas Dagangan’s 1Q22 results missed expectations due to higher product prices, despite a higher sales volume (+20% YoY). Sales volumes for both the retail and commercial segments are expected to grow, but margins could be volatile.

6. While sales volumes are certainly expected to remain healthy in tandem with the resumption of economic activities, the volatile fluctuations of underlying crude oil and product prices remain, and thus, cost management may be crucial going forward.

7. However, we have seen a significant improvement over the financial year last year with quite good first-quarter performance. There are many other factors that impacting the business, not just the volume but is also the movement of prices

8. PetDag 4Q21 core profit rose 53% yoy and 15% qoq to RM137m driven mainly by recovery in sales volume following the reopening of more economic sectors. EBITDA margin, however, was compressed to 3.6% (4Q20: 5%, 3Q21: 5.1%) potentially as a result of lag loss from declining MOPS price during the quarter.
03/08/2022 9:13 PM
hng33 Above scenario clearly show petdag profitability dependent on

1. Sale volume.
2. Retail RON petrol selling price (output selling)
3. Crack spread (input cost)

Petdag retail petrol profit margin is NOT FIXED.

There is lag time factor between input cost (crack spread) and output selling price to customer at its retail station, offer arbitrary gain
03/08/2022 9:19 PM
hng33 You can compare the RON97 price change to crack spread data. It is big lag time offer huge discrepancy gap, offer exceptional arbitrary gain for retail petrol outlet.
03/08/2022 9:26 PM
AzlanIshtiqal Setuju. Terus memantau dan tunggu Q2 keputusan diumumkan bulan ni...
03/08/2022 9:58 PM
Sslee Thank probability for the link.
If retail profit is RM 0.08 cent per liter.
Petronm q1 2022 volume is 7.7 million barrel or equal 7.7x 159 million liter so the profit will be 7.7 x159 x 0.08= RM 98 million.
04/08/2022 7:36 AM
sheldon A big chunk of retail profit will be attributed to the evil twin sisters, Petron Fuel International & Petron Oil. How much? God only knows.
05/08/2022 2:17 PM
Sslee The Q1 2022: 7.7 million barrel volume is for Petronm alone.
05/08/2022 3:22 PM
The St. Goreng become a lame duck this petron. No volume
Why ah? Not hot anymore?
FA become bad oledi ah?
05/08/2022 3:53 PM
GrowthCapitalist Malaysia always have the weirdest market from other exchange, comparatively MPC, VLO, XOM, CVX refinery has stabilize from the fall yet our refinery still at the rock bottom. Haiz.
06/08/2022 1:55 AM
searchingmoney Petronas tiap tahun bagi govt dividend, not sure Petronm ada bagi. kalau ade, mayb share price sama macam Petronas?
06/08/2022 10:18 AM
Star8888 Sell HengYuan and PetronM

Crack spread drop 5.74%
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-D1N1%21/

Gasolin crack spread drop 5.63%
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/hiuzadjh/?symbol=NYMEX%3AGZ1%21
07/08/2022 4:38 PM
The St. Goreng Why no volume? and no one bother to comment?
08/08/2022 2:54 PM
hng33 Added more at 4.68-4.72
08/08/2022 3:57 PM
hng33 At least 2/3 valuation of petron should be reflect on its 3rd largest retain petrol station, a total of profit making 760 station, commanding about quarters of Malaysia petrol market share.
08/08/2022 4:01 PM
hng33 In additional to retail petrol station, refining business in long term should form just 1/4 valuation on petronm.

In fact, petron refining business should view as complement to its retail petrol as integrated fuel provider as all its refinary oil end product is sell to its own retail station, enjoy full profit margin in entire chain supply from trading, storage, refining, logistic, retail, end customer product
08/08/2022 4:16 PM
Jerichomy This hng333 you tak takut like shark inside will sell to you like heng yuan haha
08/08/2022 5:23 PM
AzlanIshtiqal Bagus. Rebound pada penutupan pasaran hari ni
08/08/2022 6:25 PM


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