We project 2019 to be a challenging and volatile year for the equity market as corporates come to terms with the new policy and political landscape post-general elections (GE14), as well as adjust to slower global growth, tighter monetary policies and the on-going US-China trade tensions. Our stock picks for 2019 are based on the following six themes: (1) M&A theme: Star, Astro and Axiata. (2) US-China trade war: MPI, Unisem and Genting Plantations (3) GLC reform: BIMB, Axiata, RHB, Sime Property and UMW Holdings (4) Consumer spending: Genting, Berjaya Food, LSK, CCK, Power Root and Kawan Food (5) Defensive earnings quality: Westports, Gas Malaysia, KPJ Healthcare, Kossan Rubber, Malaysia Airports and Supermax (6) High dividend yields: B Toto, Astro, Inari, Power Root, Taliworks, Tune Protect and YSP (7) Oversold stocks: Sime Property, Astro, Tune Protect, Genting and MyEG Our top sector picks are rubber gloves, oil and gas, healthcare and insurance for 1H19. Our top three stock picks for 2019 are Dialog, MPI and Westports. We project KLCI earnings to grow by 6% p.a. in 2019F and 2020F but caution that there could be downside risks to these earnings due to potential policy shifts and macro headwinds. |