Sslee 4455 posts | Posted by Sslee > Sep 11, 2022 9:10 AM | Report Abuse Haha i3lurker, For 5 seconds no need to book room, any free toilet will do. |
Balian de Ibelin 13601 posts | Posted by Balian de Ibelin > Sep 11, 2022 9:13 AM | Report Abuse Theory of Hedging Expectations you booked a CRACK for say USD20 per barrel Reality and Physical you only managed to sell physical USD40 per barrel as crack climbed to USD90 coz as CRACK climbed to USD90 insurance, sales confirmations, payments, logistics freight ships and available docks were a nightmare Hedge Gap The Hedge Gap is the losses you sustained between actual 40 and the losses 90 - 20 => (70) Gross Loss (70) + 40 => (30) Conclusion => would have been better had not hedged and booked sslee's closet space for free. No need to lose USD30 Company suffered a Gross Loss and Loss far exceeds Shareholders' Funds. Company Banklap [Dragon is very happy] |
CharlesT 14536 posts | Posted by CharlesT > Sep 11, 2022 9:21 AM | Report Abuse Grossly over hedging is a gamble Grossly under hedging is also a gamble |
CharlesT 14536 posts | Posted by CharlesT > Sep 11, 2022 9:23 AM | Report Abuse Hedging protects an investor's portfolio from loss. However, hedging results in lower returns for investors. Therefore, hedging is not a strategy that should be used to make money but a strategy that should be used to protect against losing money |
Balian de Ibelin 13601 posts | Posted by Balian de Ibelin > Sep 11, 2022 9:24 AM | Report Abuse Companies usually are "Totally Unable" to sell or buy physical at the hedged peak or hedged low. The Hedged Gap if HUGE is what banklaps companies [Dragon is very happy] |
Sslee 4455 posts | Posted by Sslee > Sep 11, 2022 9:28 AM | Report Abuse Haha i3lurer, Reality and Physical you only managed to sell physical USD40 per barrel as crack climbed to USD90?? This one you must be a very charity man to do so or Malaysia governmemt selling RON95 at RM2.05 and Diesel at RM 2.15 |
Balian de Ibelin 13601 posts | Posted by Balian de Ibelin > Sep 11, 2022 9:32 AM | Report Abuse sslee was expecting this Gross Profit (70) + 90 => 20 Hedged => 20 Expectation so 20 = 20 and sslee marries Paris Hilton Reality Paris Hilton marries someone else |
Sslee 4455 posts | Posted by Sslee > Sep 11, 2022 9:35 AM | Report Abuse i3lurker, Do you know: Hengyuan realised derivatives loss for Q2 RM 438,758,000 and culmulative 6 months RM 870,964,000 all flow thro the P&L and yet HRC acheived H1 PAT of RM 714,941,000 and Operating profit before changes in working capital RM 939,171,000? Only the unrealised derivatives loss did not flow thro the P&L because unrealised loss is non cash flow items. |
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Sslee 4455 posts | Posted by Sslee > Sep 11, 2022 9:43 AM | Report Abuse The product prices during 2Q 2022 and YTD 2022 improved from an average price of USD75 per barrel and USD71 per barrel for the corresponding periods in 2021 to USD151 per barrel and USD133 per barrel respectively. So HRC is not so charitable selling their products YTD 2022 at USD 133 per barrel and Q2 at USD 151 per barrel |
CharlesT 14536 posts | Posted by CharlesT > Sep 11, 2022 9:48 AM | Report Abuse The main issue is still on Sustainability (bsides China Boss), though yr good friend expected the high diesel prices to stay forever...... |
Balian de Ibelin 13601 posts | Posted by Balian de Ibelin > Sep 11, 2022 10:02 AM | Report Abuse normally its will stay forever until you buy those shares, just like Gloves :) |
Sslee 4455 posts | Posted by Sslee > Sep 11, 2022 10:03 AM | Report Abuse As long as Russia cut their gas supply to EU and EU boycott Russia diesel then diesel price will remain high |
Sslee 4455 posts | Posted by Sslee > Sep 11, 2022 10:05 AM | Report Abuse At current HRC price a very high/good chance when Q3 and Q4 report come up the price will fly. |
CharlesT 14536 posts | Posted by CharlesT > Sep 11, 2022 10:07 AM | Report Abuse For speculations, HY is certainly a better play than Petronm |
CharlesT 14536 posts | Posted by CharlesT > Sep 11, 2022 10:08 AM | Report Abuse Posted by Sslee > 1 minute ago | Report Abuse At current HRC price a very high/good chance when Q3 and Q4 report come up the price will fly. The price went limit up fm RM4 to RM6 few days b4 Q2 result, then plunged all the way to RM4.70+ now Not 1+1 =2 kinder garden maths loh |
CharlesT 14536 posts | Posted by CharlesT > Sep 11, 2022 10:09 AM | Report Abuse Must panlai panlai buy low sell high loh |
CharlesT 14536 posts | Posted by CharlesT > Sep 11, 2022 10:10 AM | Report Abuse If say Probability's dreams come true on Q3 profit (EPS RM3.00), u think the price will limit up or jump very high after Q3 result ah? |
Balian de Ibelin 13601 posts | Posted by Balian de Ibelin > Sep 11, 2022 10:15 AM | Report Abuse No No way coz Big Funds from local and overseas wun buy. even EPF wun buy most mother in laws wun buy => This is not Gloves only limited purchases from Batang Kali gamblers |
CharlesT 14536 posts | Posted by CharlesT > Sep 11, 2022 10:15 AM | Report Abuse Got the Q profit prediction correct but share price pokxi how? |
CharlesT 14536 posts | Posted by CharlesT > Sep 11, 2022 10:17 AM | Report Abuse But why would share price come sdown after an excellent Q result (once in a century excellent results)? |
Balian de Ibelin 13601 posts | Posted by Balian de Ibelin > Sep 11, 2022 10:17 AM | Report Abuse after QR out will be a rout of Sell On News |
Sslee 4455 posts | Posted by Sslee > Sep 11, 2022 10:19 AM | Report Abuse The important thing is by Q4 if HRC cash flow can repay the RM 1.5 billion borrowing and the marked to market derivatives loss is negligible as on 31/12/2022 then most likely the HRC price uptrend can sustain for some time. |
CharlesT 14536 posts | Posted by CharlesT > Sep 11, 2022 10:20 AM | Report Abuse U see, u all engineers very panlai can do a lot of tedious n complicated calculations or profit projections chun chun on Q profit I read book not much have to try my luck in this shares biz, predicting price movement so as to earn some humble meals (chicken rice etc), if luck is good lah |
BobAxelrod 8255 posts | Posted by BobAxelrod > Sep 11, 2022 10:21 AM | Post removed. Why? |
BobAxelrod 8255 posts | Posted by BobAxelrod > Sep 11, 2022 10:22 AM | Report Abuse It's true HY is a more "speculative stock" than PetronM. |
CharlesT 14536 posts | Posted by CharlesT > Sep 11, 2022 10:23 AM | Report Abuse Posted by Sslee > 46 seconds ago | Report Abuse The important thing is by Q4 if HRC cash flow can repay the RM 1.5 billion borrowing and the marked to market derivatives loss is negligible as on 31/12/2022 then most likely the HRC price uptrend can sustain for some time. Ya ya if only high diesel price becomes a new normal n stay for a long long time (so is Ukraine War) n HY can make EPS RM2 or RM3 every Q for a long long time Pray 24 hours that it will not plunge like Mogas 92 or Tin or CPO etc etc etc etc |
BobAxelrod 8255 posts | Posted by BobAxelrod > Sep 11, 2022 10:24 AM | Post removed. Why? |
CharlesT 14536 posts | Posted by CharlesT > Sep 11, 2022 10:24 AM | Report Abuse Will it happen or not? Let me have a start....I will go Genting today to try my luck...if I kena jackpot of Royal Caribbean today I will go next month. If next month I kena jackpot again I will believe high diesel price to stay forever n I will sialang in HY |
CharlesT 14536 posts | Posted by CharlesT > Sep 11, 2022 10:25 AM | Report Abuse Posted by BobAxelrod > 32 seconds ago | Report Abuse No way can anyone compare the cyclical prices for Oil with those of Tin and Palm Oil (artificial and export ban induced) Mogas 92 leh? Can compare or not? |
BobAxelrod 8255 posts | Posted by BobAxelrod > Sep 11, 2022 10:26 AM | Post removed. Why? |
probability 14402 posts | Posted by probability > Sep 11, 2022 10:27 AM | Report Abuse exactly - keyword: pray that diesel crack wont dip below 12 USD/brl (2017 hurricane harvey peak was 17 USD/brL) despite charlest pessimistic outward expressions...his background processors keeps learning... Posted by CharlesT > Sep 11, 2022 10:22 AM | Report Abuse Posted by Sslee > 46 seconds ago | Report Abuse The important thing is by Q4 if HRC cash flow can repay the RM 1.5 billion borrowing and the marked to market derivatives loss is negligible as on 31/12/2022 then most likely the HRC price uptrend can sustain for some time. Ya ya if only high diesel price becomes a new normal n stay for a long long time (so is Ukraine War) n HY can make EPS RM2 or RM3 for a long long time Pray 24 hours that it will not plunge like Mogas 92 or Tin or CPO etc etc etc etc |
Sslee 4455 posts | Posted by Sslee > Sep 11, 2022 10:28 AM | Report Abuse Pray won't help. Supply and demand equilibrium shifting will determined the price of Mogas92, diesel, jet feul, tin, CPO, glove and etc. |
BobAxelrod 8255 posts | Posted by BobAxelrod > Sep 11, 2022 10:28 AM | Post removed. Why? |
probability 14402 posts | Posted by probability > Sep 11, 2022 10:29 AM | Post removed. Why? |
CharlesT 14536 posts | Posted by CharlesT > Sep 11, 2022 10:30 AM | Report Abuse I guess most Fund Managers are more dumb than the Sifus in I3.... They dont see the beauty of HY |
CharlesT 14536 posts | Posted by CharlesT > Sep 11, 2022 10:31 AM | Report Abuse Finally Probability wakes up to do his daily routine work in I3.... ya ya |
BobAxelrod 8255 posts | Posted by BobAxelrod > Sep 11, 2022 10:31 AM | Post removed. Why? |
CharlesT 14536 posts | Posted by CharlesT > Sep 11, 2022 10:32 AM | Report Abuse Posted by probability > 3 minutes ago | Report Abuse exactly - keyword: pray that diesel crack wont dip below 12 USD/brl (2017 hurricane harvey peak was 17 USD/brL) Pray doesnt sound that pessimistic lah...it sounds HOPE.... |
Sslee 4455 posts | Posted by Sslee > Sep 11, 2022 10:32 AM | Report Abuse Many IB analysts only wrote what their boss wanted to see. |
CharlesT 14536 posts | Posted by CharlesT > Sep 11, 2022 10:33 AM | Report Abuse Posted by probability > 42 seconds ago | Report Abuse IB-they are certainly dumber than charlest...whose background processor is functioning Not really dumber than lah...at most as dumb as CharlesT only...they never buy yr Q3 EPS RM3.00 story also mah |
CharlesT 14536 posts | Posted by CharlesT > Sep 11, 2022 10:33 AM | Report Abuse Posted by Sslee > 53 seconds ago | Report Abuse Many IB analysts only wrote what their boss wanted to see. Who is Probability's Boss in this case of HY? |
BobAxelrod 8255 posts | Posted by BobAxelrod > Sep 11, 2022 10:34 AM | Report Abuse Prices held high.....many would have IB's meat for satay with the CW |
miracle_trader 98 posts | Posted by miracle_trader > Sep 11, 2022 10:34 AM | Report Abuse this is Petron forum, why are we discussing Hengyuan here? |
CharlesT 14536 posts | Posted by CharlesT > Sep 11, 2022 10:34 AM | Report Abuse Posted by BobAxelrod > 1 minute ago | Report Abuse Oh, you still don't know yet?....O&G is still a taboo.....not holding for long......just a small play, once in a while. Probability will say u r wrong....dead wrong...high diesel price will stay forever....it's sustainable n ever lasting |
BobAxelrod 8255 posts | Posted by BobAxelrod > Sep 11, 2022 10:35 AM | Report Abuse That may be true....but HY's price would still be turbulent....... |
Sslee 4455 posts | Posted by Sslee > Sep 11, 2022 10:36 AM | Report Abuse Most likely probability's boss is his holding of HRC at high price and now looking at huge book loss. |
BobAxelrod 8255 posts | Posted by BobAxelrod > Sep 11, 2022 10:36 AM | Report Abuse Staying high would crucify IB |
BobAxelrod 8255 posts | Posted by BobAxelrod > Sep 11, 2022 10:37 AM | Post removed. Why? |
CharlesT 14536 posts | Posted by CharlesT > Sep 11, 2022 10:37 AM | Report Abuse Ya..HOPE...pray more...instead of posting more yr profit projections here |
CharlesT 14536 posts | Posted by CharlesT > Sep 11, 2022 10:38 AM | Report Abuse Posted by Sslee > 1 minute ago | Report Abuse Most likely probability's boss is his holding of HRC at high price and now looking at huge book loss. Shhhhhhh.......keep it silent |